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iraqi oil production plans
via clusterstock and the oil drum:There is a great deal of controversy about the potential of Iraq's western desert, which is largely unexplored. IHS has claimed that there might be as much as 100Gb...
View Articlechanges in employment
some excellent twitter comments of late from deepfoo analytics regarding perceptions and reality regarding unemployment.combined EUC and NSA continuing claims higher now than it has been for most of...
View Articlewelling@weeden koo interview
via zero hedge -- richard koo is interviewed by the excellent welling@weeden.Maybe. But with its massive store of savings, Japan didn’t have to worry about depending on the kindness of creditors in...
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the everything indicator
via james hamilton.Of particular interest at the moment is the fact that the HHMSW index, unlike most other indicators, shows a renewed deterioration subsequent to the initial recovery in the first...
View Articleis there a real estate bubble in china?
we might get an answer in coming weeks and months.China to Nullify Loan Guarantees by Local Governments:China plans to nullify all guarantees local governments have provided for loans taken by their...
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consumer metrics institute daily growth indicator
via clusterstock, the work of the consumer metrics institute.Although McGuckin et al indicated that the above problems had been addressed in 2001, it is clear that the statistical methods still used in...
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intermediate-term downturn/consolidation prospects
i won't attempt to defend this. it is a weekly closing price screen of the nasdaq 100 components showing the percentage of issues trading either above (demand, green), below (supply, red) or net of...
View Articlebooms and depressions since 1775
via big picture, a link to a chart in 'business booms and depressions from 1775', published 1944 and archived by FRASER.
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extension of the egalitarian defense
james livingston's articulation of how societies with concentrated wealth maldistribute their way into vulnerability was one of the more memorable posts of the last few years to my mind (subsequently...
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consequences of a shift in carry trade funding
minyanville:Chances are no one will remember where they were or what they were doing on August 24, 2009, when three-month dollar LIBOR traded under three-month yen LIBOR, or on March 5, 2010, when the...
View Articleauerback on inflation and hyperinflation
from the fiscal sustainability teach-in of april 2010, marshall auerback (along with a great panel in Q&A) discusses the preconditions of hyperinflation within the context of two commonly cited...
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LEI deconstructed, update
i haven't run this analysis in a year's time, but it's worth updating now. on twitter i've become vocal in the belief that the united states is headed into a severe double dip that will end all...
View Articlethe task of depression is margin compression
serious economic downturns can be characterized any of inflation, deflation or price stability. what they all have in common is margin compression -- where the change in the price level of raw inputs...
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EMRATIO issuing a warning
i've already gone through a bear case for leading indicators, and that remains unchanged. now i want to examine another indication of economic weakness that played a major role in forecasting a...
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LEI deconstructed, update
following on standard analysis previously discussed, conference board leading economic indicators (.pdf) with monetary factors removed continued to deteriorate in september.here also is the component...
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the steep yield curve of the 1930s
richard shaw seeking alpha ran an article back in 2007 with a providential chart of the yield curve spread dating back to 1927.what's worth noting is that the curve steepened throughout the...
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tobin's Q update
doug short posts a series of long term charts of tobin's Q, calculated today from the federal reserve's z.1 release.this chart is of absolutely no use to traders. however, for longer-term investors, i...
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the per capita recovery in real final sales
as measured by those who work (in red), we're buying more than ever, as those with jobs support those without.as measured by those who simply are (in blue), there's been virtually no recovery in...
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EMRATIO back to recession low
following up on last month's analysis, this morning's non-farm payrolls release did little to assuage me on the household survey data. on an absolute level, the EMRATIO is back down to its recession...
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